[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N20W EQ25W 1S30W EQ40W 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
12W-14W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 16W-18W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 38W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 30N96W 28N98W
27N100W.  DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A ROPE CLOUD LINE WITH STRONG
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER E TEXAS/ W LOUISIANA.  A 1026 MB
HIGH IS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W.  MODERATE SELY RETURN
FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS IS N OF 25N AND E OF 94W MOVING E.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT
RAIN.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N73W.  A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS E TO PUERTO RICO.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 64W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
EXPECT THE FRONT OVER HISPANIOLA TO DRIFT E AND PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W.  FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W AND N OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W TO
HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N60W 20N73W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS 240 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1028 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 30N24W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N50W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  WLY FLOW IS E OF 20W.

$$
FORMOSA





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