[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N20W EQ35W 1N45W 1S50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150-180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-33W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 130NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-40W
AND FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BRING THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR
IS ALREADY SHOWING NARROW BANDS OF STRONG SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS OVER E TEXAS/W-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS INTO N MEXICO ALONG 29N98W
28N106W. A ROPE OR LINE CLOUD DEFINES THE FRONT OVER LAND.
MODERATE TO STRONG RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING
SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GULF. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS S INTO THE ERN GULF. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER N TEXAS. MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND THE N GULF WATERS BY A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THESE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MOST WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
OVER THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS/RAIN ARE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA. THIS CLOUDINESS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 69W FROM 17N-22N
AND THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE E BAHAMAS.
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC...
AN 959 MB LOW WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS CENTERED WELL N OF
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW...ENTERING THE
FORECAST REGION NEAR 32N50W THEN CONTINUING TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 200 NM SE OF THE
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 34N48W TO 24N54W. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF
IS RATHER DRY...THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN UP TO 150 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS  ARE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACCORDING
THE THE GFS MODEL...THE FRONT WILL RETROGRESS AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF/SE US. A COUPLE OF SFC HIGHS ARE CENTERED...OVER THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS AND W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N25W WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE FORECAST
AREA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CUBA/HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 60W
SUPPORTING THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS N ALONG 30W.

$$
GR


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