[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
5N92W 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 31W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 4S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N9W 3N15W 1N20W...
AND FROM 4S TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W...AND FROM 2S TO 3N
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF
WATERS. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN SURFACE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF A 27/1500 UTC SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N TO 29N
BETWEEN 80W AND 89W. THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM
25N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. THE 27/1500 UTC COLD FRONT
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 31N72W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR
30N...TO THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
TO A STATIONARY FRONT IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF FLORIDA
BY 28/1800 UTC...AND THEN RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AFTER 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 74W
AND THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W AT 27/1200 UTC.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RIDING ON TOP OF THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM NICARAGUA SOUTH OF 13N TOWARD 17N70W AND EASTWARD
BEYOND 16N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO
IS PRESENT EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE PUSHING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
TO THE NORTHWEST PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EXCEPT
IN THE CLOUD-FREE AREA FROM 14N SOUTHWARD TO THE COASTS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 69W AND 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THREE AREAS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W JUST EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY
WESTERLY WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A HINT OF TROUGH IN THIS AREA
IN ORDER TO HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
THE COLD FRONT AT 27/1500 UTC PASSES THROUGH 31N72W TO 30N80W
TO NORTH FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM SOUTH
OF THE FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND
FLOW ALSO IS HELPING TO FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 5N TO 23N WEST OF AFRICA
IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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