[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N16W 1N28W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 1N ACROSS THE
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 41W-50W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-9N
BETWEEN 7W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED FURTHER E
AND IS NOW OVER THE FAR E GULF INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE GULF
E OF 85W LEAVING THE GULF WITH ONLY SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE AND RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE W GULF. DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE IS NOW
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WITH A 1028 MB HIGH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF FROM TEXAS TO S FLORIDA WITH WINDS OF
80 TO 90 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DIPS
S ACROSS CUBA TO THE JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE/CUBA OVER THE JAMAICA TO NE HONDURAS. PATCHES OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W
TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE
W CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA
TO HAITI WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER
AIR COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 61W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/CUBA. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N70W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W
TO BEYOND 32N58W. THE WEAKEN SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO
120 KT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC
ACROSS S FLORIDA THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N66W. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N48W COVERING THE AREA
FROM 25W-60W. THE NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS
FROM OVER AFRICA NEAR 23N16W SW INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 10N49W
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE E ATLC IS
ALSO DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N
W OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
32N30W TO 31N40W THUS SPLITTING THE RIDGE WITH A 1025 MB HIGH N
OF THE FRONT NEAR 34N37W AND A 1026 MB HIGH S OF THE FRONT NEAR
27N40W. THIS IS KEEPING THE AREA E OF 60W MOSTLY FAIR WITH
MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

$$
WALLACE



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