[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N20W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
26W TO 36W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
14W-17W...AND FROM 2.5N-4N BETWEEN 8W-10W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALSO FOUND 3S-3N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SE US EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC/CUBA.
THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER FLORIDA. THIS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS HELPED TEMPS TO FALL EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
NEAR 50F IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. TEMPERATURES WERE PROBABLY NEAR OR
BELOW 50F(10C) IN PARTS OF W-CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION GIVING THE AREA DRY AND STABLE
MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. A SUBTROPICAL JET IS
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS N MEXICO
INTO S TEXAS AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. RETURN SURFACE FLOW
DOMINATES THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE GULF AND THE W
CARIBBEAN DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS NOW IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS IS THE
FIRST COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE ENCHANTED ISLAND THIS WINTER
SEASON SO FAR. AT 16Z SAN JUAN REPORTED INCREASING CLOUDS AND N
WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED BY PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG NLY
WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W 0F 75W.
THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM W PANAMA TO HONDURAS. EASTERLY
WINDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ON TUESDAY. AN
UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EPAC EXTENDS A RIDGE EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 30N. AT 15Z
THE FRONT LIES ALONG 28N70W 31N78W. THE MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO BEYOND 32N55W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SUPPORTS THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN
300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TO 70W BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY N OF 28N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 20N52W COVERING THE AREA FROM 30W-60W. THE NARROW
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA NEAR 22N16W
SW INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 13N45W. THE E ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N32W. THIS
IS KEEPING THE AREA E OF 60W MOSTLY FAIR WITH MODERATE TRADE
WINDS.

$$
GR




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