[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 2N27W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ
AXIS E OF 14W TO INLAND OVER LIBERIA AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO THE
AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN 3W-8W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER THE E GULF INTO THE W
ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 79W COVERING THE GULF E OF 90W. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NE TEXAS
COAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLEARED THE GULF EARLY SUN
LEAVING THE GULF WITH ONLY SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF. SUBTROPICAL JET HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT
COVERING THE GULF N OF 22N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DIPS
S ACROSS CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TO CENTRAL BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PATCHES OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVERRUNNING THE FRONT AND ARE W OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N70W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM COSTA RICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
1002 MB LOW JUST NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N67W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO 22N69W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150/175 NM OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA/CUBA NEAR 20N73W TO BEYOND
32N64W. A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT
THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N67W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N50W COVERING THE AREA FROM 33W-65W. A
NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER
AFRICA NEAR 26N14W SW INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 10N49W
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE E ATLC IS
ALSO DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE AREA W OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N30W TO JUST E OF
THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N58W SUPPLYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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