[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 36W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
3N-9N BETWEEN 6W11W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 17W-22W.   CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COST OF
BRAZIL FROM 6S-1S BETWEEN 39W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.  A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 26N93W.  10-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF WHILE 10-15
KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
ARE S OF 26S.  A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BEHIND
THIS FRONT.  IN FACT FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PUT OUT FOR
TONIGHT FOR FLORIDA AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W...WHILE A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE QUICKLY E AND BE
OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N76W BY MONDAY EVENING.  SLY
RETURN FLOW MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
BY MONDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TO N BELIZE ALONG 22N78W 20N81W 18N88W.
LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25 KT ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  NELY
SURFACE WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
AND EXTEND AS FAR S AS COSTA RICA.  THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W HAS LIGHT TRADEWINDS WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY E OF 65W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA
NEAR 10N83W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 70W.  ELY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER BY MONDAY EVENING WITH RAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N70W
TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W.  LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25
KT ARE ALONG THE FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N65W TO 20N74W.  THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N40W 29N50W.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
35N15W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N25W 28N40W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND
W OF 70W.  A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN
30W-70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 20N21W.

$$
FORMOSA






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