[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 3N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 38W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-20W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 1.5N39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS RAPIDLY MOVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING.
AROUND 13Z...THE FRONT CROSSED KEY WEST IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KT. ONE HOUR LATER THIS
SYSTEM AFFECTED THE GREAT MIAMI WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS OF NEAR 22 KT. AT 15Z...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW PORTION OF
THE GULF TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY E OF 85W. BROKEN
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING MOST
OF THE GULF WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE NW CORNER. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE E AND MIDDLE GULF FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. 1156Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE STRONG
WINDS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE E US SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE E GULF.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER MEXICO AND THE FAR W GULF. A
1034 MB SFC HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NE
MEXICO FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT GIVING THE GULF AND THE STATE OF
FLORIDA ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY/COLD AIR. FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN. HAVANA ALSO REPORTED LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF 24
KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER
TONIGHT. NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF THE
FRONT. REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA. PATCHES OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN ARE
AFFECTING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY SINKING AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVELS
CLOUDS ARE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH
ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 18/1500 UTC...THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009
MB SFC LOW NEAR 31N76W SW ACROSS W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
31N44W CONTINUING MAINLY W TO 28N56W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
TO NEAR 25N67W. SLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATLC RIDGE HAVE
PUSHED THE FRONT FARTHER N. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130/180 NM N OF THE FRONT. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ARE N OF THE REGION. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90
TO 130 KT THAT COVERS THE N GULF WATERS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
ACROSS N FLORIDA THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N70W. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO
RICO TO BEYOND 32N30W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SW INTO
THE TROPICS NEAR 13N40W. THE E ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND
MODERATE TRADES ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.

$$
GR







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