[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 3N31W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S48W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ
AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 42W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER THE E GULF
EXTENDING THROUGH ALABAMA/GEORGIA TO 26N87W EMBEDDED WITHIN A
VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC TO THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES SETTING UP WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. AT
18/0900 UTC...THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR
31N79W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 24N86W TO MEXICO NEAR
22N98W. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE GULF DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE
GULF IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR BUT A BAND OF SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM NW OF THE FRONT E OF 86W AND WITHIN 60 NM NW
OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 86W-93W. SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE N GULF WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT COVERING THE GULF N
OF 22N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. PATCHES
OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE W OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA/
PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE E OF THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 18/0900 UTC...THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM A
1011 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W SW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N76W TO BEYOND 32N74W AND A 1020 MB HIGH ANCHORED JUST E OF
BERMUDA. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N48W CONTINUING SW TO 26N60W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND DISSIPATES INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR
20N75W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150/250 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARE N OF THE REGION.
A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT THAT COVERS THE
GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA THEN NE TO BEYOND
32N73W. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS NE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N37W. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N11W SW INTO THE TROPICS
NEAR 13N37W. THE E ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
TO JUST E OF CENTRAL ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 25N53W SUPPLYING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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