[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N1W 4N10W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 34W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 3S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO 7N EAST OF 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 3N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND
DRY AIR/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NOW COVER THE GULF WATERS. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTH TEXAS AND
ITS BORDER WITH MEXICO...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM JUST SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO FAR WEST TEXAS AND BEYOND. A 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 27N85W. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO ORGANIZE
ITSELF IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT WAS PASSING THROUGH THE
GULF DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS NOW EXTENDS THROUGH 25N73W TO
18N73W TO 14N75W TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE EAST OF THIS
TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXISTS FROM
THE SURFACE TO 800 MB SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 66W AND 80W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS GO FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 67W AND 74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N76W TO 25N73W
TO 20N72W IS THE SAME TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N79W 27N76W
26N72W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 77W.
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE 23N31W 12N35W TROUGH
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 31N76W 20N72W TROUGH. THE SOUTHERN END
OF ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 31N19W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N20W TO
29N30W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N30W TO 26N40W
23N50W 19N60W 20N63W. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 23N31W TO 16N32W
TO 12N35W. THIS SECOND TROUGH HAS SPLIT AWAY FROM ITS
COUNTERPART TO THE NORTH WHICH GOES FROM 32N40W BEYOND 38N43W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSES THROUGH
36N50W TO 36N60W AND WESTWARD. A THIRD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N20W
TO 19N25W TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 14N27W TO 9N32W.

$$
MT




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