[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN 4N15W 3N30W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W AND CONTINUING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
4S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE
AXIS E OF 10W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE OVER NE BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF TODAY. AS OF
21Z...THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO AND IS
WELL DEFINED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A NARROW LINE OF LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
STRONG LINE OF SHOWER/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OF GEORGIA
TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA AND ANOTHER BAND OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS ALABAMA. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND DROPPING TEMPS/DEWPTS ARE ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE ALREADY
BLOWING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH TIGHTENING THE PRES GRAD AND
ADVECTING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST W
OF 95W ON THU. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY THURSDAY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US IS
SUPPORTING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH
CORE WINDS OF 110 TO 130 KT CROSSES N MEXICO...SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL EWD WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA TOWARD HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED THE LARGE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH EWD AND NOW IS
CENTERED JUST E OF THE ABC ISLANDS. THE STRONG SWLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER N
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WHERE THE UPPER ENERGY IS STRONGER.
ABUNDANT MID/UPPER DRY SINKING AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
BASIN...SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FROM
FORMING. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN. EARLIER QSCAT PASS
SHOWED ELY TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
JUST OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.  WINDS WILL RELAX AND VEER MORE TO
THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE
SRN U.S. THE COLD FRONT...THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/NW CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY
AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVERS MOST OF THE W
ATLC N OF 24N. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS JUST OFFSHORE THE E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 27N. THIS
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM SW TO NE
BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE BAHAMAS. MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
AND TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIB. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE REGION
BETWEEN 40W-70W. ABUNDANT DRY AND  STABLE AIR ALOFT IS FOUND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS SWWD TO NEAR 10N45W. DRY AIR IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
WHILE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AXIS AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA. TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N25W THEN CONTINUES TO NEAR 27N38W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY CONTINUING ALONG 24N50W 20N60W AND
DISSIPATING N OF PUERTO RICO.  A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A 1025 MB SFC
HIGH IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR 31N64W.

$$
GR




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