[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN 5N12W 3N27W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W AND CONTINUING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
3S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM S AND 180 NM N OF THE
AXIS E OF 15W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH/DEEP LAYER
LOW IS PRODUCING SOME FAST MOVING AREAS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THREE AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
TSTMS RELATED TO THE UPPER ENERGY. THE FIRST LINE IS ACROSS THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE AND COASTAL WATERS NWD ACROSS AL AND GA. THERE
IS A TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THIS BAND AS IT TRACKS E. THE SECOND
LINE OF STORMS IS FURTHER SE MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
26N-29N. THE THIRD AREA IS IN THE FL STRAITS AND PORTIONS OF THE
KEYS. ELSEWHERE THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE S-SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW MOVED
INTO THE NW CORNER. AS OF 15 Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED
FROM WRN LA TO S TEXAS CLEARLY MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS...
A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT...AND DROPPING TEMPS/DEWPTS. NWP MODELS
SHOW THIS COLD FRONT TRACKING SE LIKELY CLEARING NEARLY ALL OF
THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SWD
BEHIND THE FRONT...TIGHTENING THE PRES GRAD AND ADVECTING A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS. FOR THAT REASON...GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST W
OF 95W ON THU.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL EWD WITH A ROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WRN BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TOWARD
HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH HAS SHIFTED THE LARGE STRONG MID-UPPER
LEVEL HIGH EWD NOW CENTERED OVER THE NRN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
11N67W. UPPER LEVEL SWLYS/DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A SWATH OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST S OF CENTRAL CUBA...AS DEPICTED ON CUBA
DOPPLER RADAR. THIS STRONG SWLY FLOW IS ADVECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE FURTHER N ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE SW ATLC
WHERE THE UPPER ENERGY IS STRONGER. BESIDES FOR THE SMALL
PORTION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MENTIONED...ABUNDANT DRY SINKING
MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY FROM FORMING. AT THE SFC...LATEST QSCAT PASS SHOWS ELY
TRADES GENERALLY NEAR 20 KT E OF 78W EXCEPT TO 30 KT N OF
COLOMBIA. THE WINDS RELAX AND VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH W OF THERE
IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SRN U.S. THESE
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED TO SLACKEN ON WED THRU
FRI AS LOW PRES SHIFTS E AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW
CORNER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOCATIONS TODAY IS IN THE EXTREME
W ATLC WHERE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
FROM SW TO NE BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE BAHAMAS. BASED ON IR
IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE DOPPLER RADAR...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 70W-78W. SOME DEBRIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
STRETCHED EWD BY STRONG UPPER WLY WINDS N OF 27N ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPER BETWEEN
20W-30W DUE TO AN AN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING DIFFLUENCE. THIS
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SFC COLD FRONT...ANALYZED ALONG 32N26W
27N38W 24N48W THEN STATIONARY TO 20N60W AND DISSIPATING TO
21N67W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS ALSO LEADING TO
THE ENHANCED PRECIP OUTLINED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS
MARKED BY A THINNING LINE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
AND TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN CARIB. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE REGION
BETWEEN 37W-70W SUPPORTING AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE 30+ DEG AREA...WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE E ATLC IS A
HIGHLY ELONGATED SHARP UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS SWWARD ALONG 21N28W 12N40W 8N48W. E OF THIS
AXIS...THERE IS SOME PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRAWN NEWD BY
EXTENSIVE UPPER SWLYS POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
W COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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