[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N8W 4N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 32W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL AT 4S41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 9W AND
20W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 19W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA...
TEXAS...NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
INLAND AND RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO A 1003 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE NORTH TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER ALONG 97W.
A TORNADO WAS REPORTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AREA. THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OUT OF LOUISIANA AND NOW IS IN MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W IN THE GULF WATERS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 24N82W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE DISSIPATED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 24N82W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
TO 17N84W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS
SOUTH OF 18N EAST OF 74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N36W TO 23N50W TO 21N55W TO
20N62W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N62W
TO 20N67W 21N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N33W
27N40W 24N50W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
24N50W 21N56W 20N61W 21N65W 22N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM
IS WITHIN 400 NM NORTH OF 22N76W 28N63W 27N40W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN THIS SAME
JET STREAM NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N28W TO 24N29W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 31N36W 20N62W COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 18N25W TO 13N31W TO A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 10N34W TO 7N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH ALONG 15W FROM THE ITCZ TO 24N.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 8W IN AFRICA AND THE TROUGH.

$$
MT




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