[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N8W 4N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 33W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 4S40W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 3W AND 20W...
AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA...
TEXAS...NORTHERN MEXICO...AND A BIT OF THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE
MIDDLE COAST TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM LOUISIANA NORTHWARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS
NEAR 23N85W JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. A SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 23N85W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS MORE OR LESS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF 17N EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N38W TO 24N50W TO 21N60W TO
21N63W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WILL GO FROM 21N63W TO
20N68W 21N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 28N37W BEYOND 32N30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N35W 28N40W 26N46W 24N50W...AND WITHIN
30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N50W 21N55W 21N60W 21N66W.
CLOUD DEVELOPMENTS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION EXIST FROM NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA TO 23N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM
IS WITHIN 400 NM NORTH OF 31N57W 29N66W 23N79W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN CLOUDINESS IN THIS SAME JET STREAM MOSTLY WEST OF
70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N35W TO 30N36W TO 27N38W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
31N38W 21N63W COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES
FROM 17N27W TO 13N31W TO A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 9N33W TO 6N44W TO 6N47W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE
EAST OF THIS TROUGH ALONG 17W/18W FROM THE ITCZ TO 24N.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 8W IN AFRICA AND THE TROUGH.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net