[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 122326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 32W 1S38W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE
IS MAINLY INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL FROM 2S-5S BETWEEN 39W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IT HAS BEEN A PRETTY WET DAY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SE GULF AND
S FLA. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS PARTLY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GULF LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER COMPONENT IS THE SFC
PATTERN WHICH IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER. AS
OF 21 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 25N86W WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE FL STRAITS.
A SFC TROUGH STRETCHES SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE UPPER ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS
GENERATING A SWATH OF MOISTURE S OF 29N E OF 86W.
HOWEVER...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVY PRECIP NOW E OF THE AREA
IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SW ATLC. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS IS AFFECTING LA/E TEXAS AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DVLPG COLD FRONT CONNECTED TO A
LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE S CENTRAL U.S. GFS SHOWS
THIS COLD FRONT GAINING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIB IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER NRN VENEZUELA AND ASSOCIATED ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN AREA OF ORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NW CARIB ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS SWD FROM A LOW IN THE SE GULF ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LIES TO THE E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...N OF 19N BETWEEN 81W-86W...SHEARED AND ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL SWLY WINDS TO THE E OF A SHORTWAVE AXIS IN THE E GULF.
DOPPLER RADAR FROM CUBA AND CANCUN DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE AREA OUTLINED. ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE MENTIONED IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
FROM FORMING. MODERATE ELY TRADES ARE BLOWING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIB GENERATING AND STEERING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SEA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SIMILAR TOMORROW AND THEN SLACKEN MID-WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRES
DEVELOPS N OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOCATIONS THIS EVENING IS IN THE
EXTREME W ATLC WHERE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM SW TO NE BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE ERN GULF.
LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM THE W BAHAMAS
ACROSS THE FLA STRAITS IS ENHANCING INSTABILITY GENERATING A
SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE NW OF A LINE ALONG 24N80W 28N74W 32N68W.
SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE IS STRETCHED EWD BY STRONG UPPER WLY WINDS
N OF 28N ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 26W. THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEEPER BETWEEN 35W-43W DUE TO AN AN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING
DIFFLUENCE. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SFC COLD
FRONT...ANALYZED ALONG 32N38W 23N54W 21N62W THEN STATIONARY TO
20N71W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS ALSO LEADING TO
THE ENHANCED PRECIP OUTLINED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT IS
MARKED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM. A WEAKENING SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT IS BEHIND THE MAIN ONE
ALONG 32N43W 26N60W 26N66W...INCREASING THE SFC WINDS WHICH IS
REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE STRONG
MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N69W. THIS
RIDGE COVERS THE REGION BETWEEN 37W-77W SUPPORTING AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE 40 DEG
AREA...WHICH IS SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE
MAIN FEATURE IN THE E ATLC IS AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM
MADEIRA ISLANDS SWWARD ALONG 19N29W 10N40W. E OF THIS
AXIS...THERE IS SOME PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRAWN NEWD BY
EXTENSIVE UPPER SWLYS. THIS MOIST/DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 25W.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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