[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT
30W...1S40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN 15W-22W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 3N10W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS OVER THE GULF WITH A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW. AT 15Z THE LOW IS NEAR 24N87W. THE 10M
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SFC
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
DOPPLER RADAR IS DEPICTING LINES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS/KEYS...CAPABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. LONG KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
RECEIVED AROUND 6 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90/91W AND THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SLY RETURN
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY MORNING. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVELS CLOUD LINES MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF INTO SOUTH TEXAS...UNDER THE SLY WIND
FLOW. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...THE WARM FRONT/FRONTAL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NWD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT MID/UPPER DRY AIR IS
ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N68W. THE SLY WINDS ON THE W PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER HIGH IS DRAWING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
SOUTH AMERICA INTO PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. LOW TO MID
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE ARE AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA.
ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC
COLD FRONT IS STILL GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER HISPANIOLA
AND THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW FROM 32N46W
TO NEAR 25N61W CONTINUING AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS NEWD FROM HISPANIOLA TO 32N40W AND BEYOND. A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR CAPE HATTERAS IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES COVERING THE W ATLC. ANOTHER SFC HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN
THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA ALSO DOMINATES THE W-CENTRAL ATLC
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE E ATLC AND EXTENDS ALONG
32N23W 20N30W INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N40W.

$$
GR




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