[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141211
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1145 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
5N1W 4N10W 2N20W 1N27W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 33W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND
DRY AIR/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NOW COVER THE GULF WATERS. A COLD
FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST ABOUT 90 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT
STARTS ABOUT 125 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND
AND IT CONTINUES TO THE FAR WEST AND BEYOND TO THE NORTHWEST.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 27N84W...WITH NO APPARENT PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO ORGANIZE ITSELF IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W TO 15N73W TO 12N76W TO 10N80W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE EAST OF THIS TROUGH.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 800 MB SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W TO 27N68W BEYOND 33N72W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 63W
AND 70W. FEW SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND
FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30N
BETWEEN THE 27N30W 12N31W TROUGH AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 33N72W
19N70W TROUGH. THE SOUTHERN END OF ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REACHES 32N15W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N23W TO 26N40W 19N59W 20N62W. A SECOND
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N30W 20N30W 12N31W. THIS SECOND TROUGH HAS
SPLIT AWAY FROM ITS COUNTERPART...THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N42W
BEYOND 33N42W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
PASSES THROUGH 35N43W BEYOND 34N53W AND WESTWARD. A THIRD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N17W TO 14N26W TO 9N30W.

$$
MT


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