[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W EQ20W 1S30W 1N40W...CROSSING
AGAIN THE EQUATOR AT 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN
30W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
8W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ALONG
29N85W 25N94W ENTERING MAINLAND MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE SE US AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE MEXICO AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH S ACROSS THE GULF AND
WILL EXTEND FROM FT MYERS FLORIDA TO S TEXAS TONIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVE E THROUGH
MON. FURTHER S...A WEAK SFC TROUGH RUNS FROM 27N86W TO 20N88W.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL. WINDS
ARE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WHERE SURFACE DATA INDICATES NLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA BY STRONG SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT MID/UPPER DRY AIR
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE ALSO
DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE DRY
AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
FROM FORMING. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING DRIVEN WWD
BY MODERATE TRADE WINDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AS
WELL AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM A SFC TROUGH IN THE SE GULF. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
OVER THE ATLC IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MOVE E AND
WEAKEN TODAY RESULTING IN DECREASING ELY TRADES. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT
JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 09Z...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N69W THEN
CONTINUES SW TO 28N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING
ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 25N65W NE TO 32N53W AND BEYOND. MAINLY LOW CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE W
ATLC NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS THESE FRONTS. A STRONG JETSTREAM
WITH CORE WINDS OF 130-150 KT LIES ALONG 30N AND IS ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE W-CENTRAL ATLC N OF
26N. A SFC TROUGH GOES FROM 24N65W TO 19N70W. A 1015 MB SFC LOW
IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 23N67W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING
SOME CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND THE
TROUGH WILL PROBABLY MERGE WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH DURING
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N58W. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING
AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
ATLC W OF 30W S OF 26N. IN THE E ATLC...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 12N30W. SWLY WINDS SE OF THE LOW ARE DRAWING FAIR AMOUNT OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS BETWEEN THE LOW
AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA. THE SFC PATTERN IN THE E-CENTRAL ATLC
REMAINS DOMINATED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE MADEIRA
AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OF
AROUND 20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH.

$$
GR



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