[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
25W TO 1S30W EQ40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S45W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 9W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 28W-30W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TO S TEXAS ALONG 29N81W 27N90W 25N97W.  BROWNSVILLE
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE
MEXICO AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
95W-99W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT.  WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE NE AT 15-25 KT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
80W.  A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS IS OVER THE N
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N.   EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT S TO S
FLORIDA AND WEAKEN BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE ACROSS THE FRONT AND NO CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 72W.  SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 83W-88W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
SEA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW IS W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N68W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SW TO 28N70W 28N75W A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO N FLORIDA
NEAR 29N81W.  MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W.  A 1013 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N50W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N60W 20N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N20W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO 20N50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY ZONAL
FLOW IS W OF 40W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 15N28W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-25N BETWEEN
23W-35W.  WLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 25N E OF 40W.

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FORMOSA






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