[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AT 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN
30W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 3N TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ENTERING MAINLAND MEXICO AS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE SE U.S. FROM
LOUISIANA ALL THE WAY EAST TO SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH S ACROSS THE
GULF AND WILL EXTEND FROM FT MYERS FLORIDA TO S TEXAS LATE SAT.
STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SAT AND MOVE E
THROUGH MON. FURTHER S...A WEAK SFC TROUGH RUNS FROM 26N84W TO
20N87W. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/CHANNEL. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
EXCEPT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WHERE NLY
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA BY STRONG SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT MID/UPPER DRY AIR
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE ALSO
DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE DRY
AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
FROM FORMING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE BEING
DRIVEN WWD BY MODERATE TRADE WINDS. THE PATCHES APPEAR THICKEST
IN THE SE CARIBBEAN/THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A SFC
TROUGH IN THE GULF. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH OVER THE ATLC IS
GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER
HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MOVE E AND WEAKEN TODAY
RESULTING IN DECREASING ELY TRADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY NEAR THE COLOMBIAN
COAST WHERE THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 03Z...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N72W THEN
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO 32N50W
AND BEYOND. MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS THESE FRONTS.
A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 130-150 KT LIES ALONG 30N
BETWEEN 55W AND 85W. SE OF THE FRONTS DESCRIBED THERE IS A SFC
TROUGH THAT GOES FROM 26N62W TO 19N70W. A 1016 MB SFC LOW IS
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 23N68W. THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC
COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND THE TROUGH
WILL PROBABLY MERGE WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N58W. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC W OF
30W S OF 26N. IN THE E ATLC...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
12N30W. SWLY WINDS SE OF THE LOW ARE DRAWING FAIR AMOUNT OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS BETWEEN THE LOW
AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA. THE SFC PATTERN IN THE E-CENTRAL ATLC
REMAINS DOMINATED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE MADEIRA
AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO KEEP THE
WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE AREA.

$$
GR




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