[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W EQ30W EQ40W TO THE COAST OF NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-19W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO AFFECTING COASTAL NE BRAZIL FROM 6S-3N
BETWEEN 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY OVER THE GULF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NW OF
A TAMPICO MEX TO SARASOTA FL LINE WHERE SKY CONDITIONS ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS ARE SE OF
THAT SAME LINE...WITH HINTS OF WEAK SFC TROUGHING NOTED IN A
SMALL LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 84W-91W. AS OF
1500 UTC...A 1026 MB SFC HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE COAST OF SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...MOSTLY BELOW 15 KT OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER JUST
N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL...WITH LOTS
OF DRY AIR DOMINATING THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. NARROW ZONE OF
HIGH CLOUDS SEEN STREAMING FROM THE FAR SE GULF OVER S FL AND
INTO THE WRN ATLC WITH SUBTROPICAL JET. ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT HAS BEEN HUGGING THE TEXAS COAST THIS
MORNING IS NOW BURNING OFF. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE E SWELL
AFFECTING THE WRN GULF FROM THE PROLONGED E FETCH THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXTREMELY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE DRIEST AIR REMAINING S OF
16N. MUCH OF THIS DRY AIR IS A BYPRODUCT OF THE UPPER CONFLUENCE
AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE ZONAL FLOW AFFECTING THE
NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SFC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE TO
ADVECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE PATCHES IS IN THE SE CARIB BETWEEN
THE ABC ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD...WHERE LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE
IS LIKELY TO BLAME. SIMILAR TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SW N ATLC BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N45W AND CONTINUES SW TO
22N69W...OR JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT...WITH FEW TO
SCATTERED COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SUBTROPICAL JET IS CARRYING A THIN LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC AS WELL...FROM THE BAHAMAS TO 32N50W.
DRY MID TO UPPER AIR AND RIDGING IS NE OF THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD
ISLANDS OUT TO 40W. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR
13N35W...THAT HAS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE TO ITS E...WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS FROM 10N-21N FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 33W. SFC
PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC DOMINATED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR
27N40W THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH E TO NEAR 26N27W BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

$$
WILLIS




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