[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 43W...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
21W AND 24W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 30W
AND 45W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N34W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 20N110W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO NEW MEXICO...
TEXAS...AND OKLAHOMA...TOWARD THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS WEST OF
90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
30N60W TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N84W TO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 500 MB TO 350 MB COVERS THE AREA
ACCORDING TO THE 07/0900 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA.
EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB EAST
OF 70W. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO
800 MB WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS EVERYWHERE. THE COMPARATIVELY DRYEST AIR IS FROM 9N TO 15N
BETWEEN 60W AND 83W FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...BETWEEN 60W AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NICARAGUA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF 66W...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
77W AND 86W INCLUDING OVER NICARAGUA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD AND GENTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W...THE U.S.A. EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 24N
WEST OF 55W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN IS INTERESTING
IN THAT THE JET STREAM FLOWS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BEYOND 32N56W TO 45N19W...AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
INLAND OVER AFRICA...AND NOW IS OVER PARTS OF MOROCCO...
ALGERIA...AND MAURITANIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N34W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 10N39W TO 10N60W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS WITHIN 360 NM TO 420 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
THE COMPARATIVELY DRYEST AIR IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W
AND 60W. A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM 32N50W TO 26N60W TO 23N67W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT GOES FROM 23N67W TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND GREAT INAGUA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N74W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 34N60W TO BERMUDA
TO 32N71W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N71W NORTHWESTWARD.
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N38W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE 32N50 23N67W COLD FRONT.

$$
MT




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