[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 43W...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N
BETWEEN 20W AND 38W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...TO THE EAST OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N34W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN NORTH OF 20N110W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO NEW MEXICO...
TEXAS...AND OKLAHOMA...TOWARD THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS WEST OF
90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N80W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 500 MB TO 350 MB COVERS THE AREA
ACCORDING TO THE 07/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA.
EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB EAST
OF 70W. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO
800 MB WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS EVERYWHERE. THE COMPARATIVELY DRYEST AIR IS FROM 8N TO 15N
BETWEEN 66W AND 83W FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...BETWEEN THE LONGITUDE LINE FOR
CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
EAST OF 12N66W 20N62W...FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W...
AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD AND GENTLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W...THE U.S.A. EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 24N
WEST OF 55W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN IS INTERESTING
IN THAT THE JET STREAM FLOWS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BEYOND 32N61W TO 45N24W...AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
INLAND OVER AFRICA...AND NOW IS OVER PARTS OF MOROCCO...
ALGERIA...AND MAURITANIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N34W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 10N39W TO 10N60W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS WITHIN 360 NM TO 420 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM 31N54W TO 27N60W TO 23N67W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT GOES FROM 23N67W TO THE CAICOS
ISLANDS AND GREAT INAGUA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W.
A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 31N68W TO
31N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N72W TO 33N79W.
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N35W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE 31N54W 23N67W FRONT.

$$
MT




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