[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 44W INTO NE BRAZIL.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 23W-34W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN
44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR
31N84W IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED S OF 27N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SHOWERS ARE HEAVIEST OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.  A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS SEEN IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE CENTERED NEAR 20N94W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW
DOMINATES.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 91W.  A
BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE SE GULF E OF
91W AND S OF 27N MOVING RAPIDLY E.  EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AREAS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY E
OF 78W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH PREDOMINATELY SWLY FLOW AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.  EXPECT
LITTLE CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO THE
BAHAMAS ALONG 32N55W 24N73W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  A BAND OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE FRONT
WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE LINE 23N80W 32N60W.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N37W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING W TO 24N55W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC N OF
10N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 15N31W.  SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS E OF 20W.

$$
FORMOSA




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