[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N25W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 44W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 70 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
27W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 TO 90
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-24W AND BETWEEN 37W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1034 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF...GIVING THE AREA MODERATE TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS. THIS MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF
25 TO 30 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WED THROUGH THU
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. BASED
OF SURFACE DATA AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS A SFC TROUGH IS
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF ON THE 15Z MAP. THIS TROUGH LIES ALONG
96W FROM 25N-28N. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED
BY UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO THE SE OF A SHARP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA TO NE MEXICO...WHICH IS THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN US. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ON THE ATLANTIC SECTION. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF SE OF A LINE FROM
TAMPICO TO FT. MYERS...WITH A CLEARING TREND ELSEWHERE. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
KEYS AND THE COASTAL WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GULF ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE BASIN AND
IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE ALSO
DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE AREA...BUT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
AND THE ABC ISLANDS. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THEM WITH MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WESTERN PANAMA
TO HONDURAS. POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA EWD ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  MODERATE ELY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA MOVES E AND WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO
DOMINATES THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NE FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 32N38W AND BEYOND. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE
SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A PLUME OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE
AFFECTING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND THE E ATLC E OF 40W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLC AND THE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED
NEAR 15N35W CONTINUING SW TO 11N50W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
WEST AFRICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE DRAWING FAIR AMOUNT OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS INTO W AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE OVER THE W ATLC. ONE IS A DYING COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ALSO THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND E CUBA. THE SECOND ONE IS THE PREVIOUSLY
REINFORCING FRONT THAT NOW BECOMES THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N60W THEN CONTINUES SWWD TO NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE MAIN FRONT. A 1027 MB
SFC HIGH SITUATED NEAR 28N37W COVERS THE ATLC AND THE NE
CARIBBEAN E OF THE DYING FRONT. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
GR







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