[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
12N12W 6N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 33W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S46W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N
TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 19W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
21W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW GOES FROM INTERIOR
MEXICO ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IS MIXED WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 23N TO 30N WEST OF 90W. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N74W...TO CUBA TO 21N80W...
CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 20N90W...
CURVING TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS ENTIRE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT TO 30 KT
ARE SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 90W. THE 24 HOUR TO 48 HOUR FORECAST
IS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 500 MB TO 350 MB COVERS THE AREA
ACCORDING TO THE 06/0900 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA.
EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB. THE
SURFACE WIND FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN THE CENTRAL SECTION
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF 12N62W 13N68W 16N76W 14N82W.
THE COMPARATIVELY DRYEST AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS WITHIN
90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N54W TO 11N62W 12N72W FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO THE
GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N58W TO 24N69W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 24N69W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W TO CUBA
TO 21N80W...CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
20N90W...CURVING TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS ENTIRE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS OF
25 KT TO 30 KT ARE SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW LEAVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CROSSING
FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT CONTINUES TO GO NORTH OF 30N
AS FAR AS 30W...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N6W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN MOROCCO NEAR 33N6W TO 25N15W AT THE
MOROCCO COAST TO 23N21W TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 16N34W TO 12N44W 11N52W TO 10N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND WITHIN 360 NM TO 420 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 40W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N10W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N37W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 25W
AND THE 31N58W 24N69W COLD FRONT.

$$
MT


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