[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 5N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 33W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N
TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
22W AND 40W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW GOES FROM INTERIOR
MEXICO ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS TO FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IS MIXED WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 23N TO 30N WEST OF 90W. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N73W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W...TO WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO 18N91W NEAR NORTHERN GUATEMALA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT. THE 24 HOUR TO 48 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 500 MB TO 350 MB COVERS THE AREA
ACCORDING TO THE 06/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA.
EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB. THE
SURFACE WIND FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN THE CENTRAL SECTION
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF 12N62W 13N68W 16N76W 14N82W.
THE COMPARATIVELY DRYEST AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS WITHIN
90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N54W TO 11N62W 12N72W FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO THE
GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 26N70W TO 25N73W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N73W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W...TO WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO 18N91W NEAR NORTHERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW LEAVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT CONTINUES
TO GO NORTH OF 30N AS FAR AS 30W...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N14W. A FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 31N14W TO 25N18W 23N26W TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 16N34W TO 12N46W TO 10N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS WITHIN 240 TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WEST OF 30W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N15W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT CONNECTS THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER TO
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N8W. A 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N39W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 25W AND THE
31N60W 26N70W COLD FRONT.

$$
MT


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