[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N18W 1N29W EQ40W TO THE COAST OF NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1S477W. MUCH OF THE AXIS IS RATHER QUIET...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM BETWEEN 24W-29W.
SCATTERED MODERATE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL FROM THE EQ
TO 5S BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS THE RULE FOR ABOUT 2/3 RD OF THE GULF
THIS EVENING. THE FAIR WEATHER IS SUPPORTED BY A SFC RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL/NE PORTION AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK NEWLY FORMED SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WAS THOUGHT TO BE DVLPG IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IS ALONG
87W S OF 27N. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
81W-88W. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR IS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
BETWEEN THE KEYS AND NAPLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO ITS A GOOD ASSUMPTION TO BELIEVE THERE IS SIMILAR
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION OUTLINED. THE WEAK SFC PRES
PATTERN IS KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF...MOSTLY BELOW 15 KT OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE E SWELL
FROM THE PROLONGED E FETCH CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WRN GULF.
THIS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NWP MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE UPPER FLOW MAY VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE WSW OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE TO THE W GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXTREMELY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH THE DRIEST AIR REMAINING S OF 15N.
MUCH OF THIS DRY AIR IS A BYPRODUCT OF UPPER CONFLUENCE AND
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH JUST
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENSIVE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
GULF AND NW CARIB. AT THE SFC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
ADVECTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
WWD. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PATCHES ARE THICKEST E OF 65W WHERE
A FEW STATIONS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE REPORTING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS. SIMILAR TRADES/WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE TOMORROW AND FRI.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SW N ATLC BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N42W AND CONTINUES SW
TO 25N58W THEN STATIONARY TO 22N69W. MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
IS N OF THE AREA BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BEHIND IT. ALOFT...A SUBTROPICAL JET IS CARRYING A VERY
THIN LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS...ROUGHLY 90 NM IN WIDTH...THROUGH THE
WRN AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM S FLA TO NEAR 32N45W. DRY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL AIR EXISTS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THIS LINE MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N55W WHICH RIDGES NEWARD TO 32N31N. A
RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 14N35W BREAKING UP
THE STRONG RIDGE. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE E OF THE
UPPER LOW ...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE/MOIST UPPER SWLY
FLOW... FROM 12N-22N E OF 34W. SFC PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N38W THAT IS EXPECTED
TO RETREAT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF STRENGTHENING LOWS IN THE NW/N CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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