[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33W CONTINUING ALONG 2S38W INTO NE BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM THE EQ TO 4N BETWEEN
35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER FLOW REMAINS SW/WSW OVER THE GULF AROUND RIDGING EXTENDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE CARIBBEAN...AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM GREAT LAKES REGION TO NRN MEXICO.
THIS UPPER FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THUS
THE FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MID
TO UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING NE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS NW OF A
LINE FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO TAMPA FL. THIS SUBTROPICAL JET MAY
ALSO CONTAIN EMBEDDED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY N OF 23N W OF 93W WHERE
THE CLOUDINESS IS THICKEST. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS SPARKED A
FEW MORE TSTMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT THESE ARE NOT NEARLY AS
POTENT AS YESTERDAYS SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LESS CAPE AVAILABLE
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDINESS IS SEEN
WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
CONSIDERABLE TEMP DIFFERENCES OBSERVED ON OPPOSING SIDES OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 40S ALONG THE
PANHANDLE AND NEAR 80 IN THE FL KEYS. NE WINDS HAVE RAMPED UP TO
THE 20-30 KT RANGE N OF THE FRONT THROUGH 27N...MAINLY W OF 84W.
THE SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MODERATE TO STRONG
SIDE IN THE SRN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN. THE AIR IS SO STABLE ALOFT THAT THE WV COLOR
ENHANCEMENTS ARE IN THE DRIEST RANGE ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND THE
SRN CARIB. BELOW THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE MORE CONCENTRATED OF THESE
PATCHES ARE AFFECTING THE REGION BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND
TRINIDAD...AND ALSO BETWEEN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CUBA.
TRADES 20-30 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIB.
THESE WINDS DEVELOP A SLY COMPONENT IN THE NW CARIB IN RESPONSE
TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE S GULF. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM
ELY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS IN THE SE GULF/NW CARIB.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLC
AREA N OF 10N. THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED IN
THE GULF SECTION IS IN THE W ATLC ANALYZED ALONG 32N70W 28N76W
TO S FLA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DEEP LAYER CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. IR PICTURES SHOW THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...FROM 29N-32N W OF
75W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING QUICKLY NE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
OVER THE AREA. SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS E
OF THE FRONT TO 40W. ANOTHER SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDING S FROM A 1025MB CENTER JUST W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
NEAR 34N18W. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES HAS A
TROUGH ALIGNED ALONG 30N33W 23N37W...WHICH IS ALSO A REFLECTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE REGION.

$$
WILLIS


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