[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33W CONTINUING ALONG 3S40W INTO NE BRAZIL. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-22W...
FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 25W-29W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO THE NRN YUCATAN NEAR 21N90W TO THE SRN
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS NEAR 20N98W DRIFTING S.  OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.
15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE ALSO N OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE S OF THE FRONT WITH 15-20 KT SLY WINDS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.   A 100-130 KT JETSTREAM WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 20N102W 30N91W 33N80W.
THIS JETSTREAM IS MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY FRONT
BELOW...THUS NOT PRODUCING MUCH UPPER LEVEL SLY PUSH TO THE
FRONT.  EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO STAY IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 86W AND S OF 25N WHERE MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE THE THICKEST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY E OF 73W.  THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W HAS
15-20 KT SELY SURFACE FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO BEYOND HISPANIOLA.  THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG
32N69W 25N80W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N41W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE
BAHAMAS ALONG 27N55W 24N74W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 23N47W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 23N35W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF
THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 26W-34W.  WLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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