[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33W CONTINUING ALONG 2S38W INTO NE BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM THE EQ TO 3N BETWEEN
36W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LACKING MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...IS NOW
STATIONARY OR MOVING VERY SLOWLY S ANALYZED FROM SOUTH FL TO A
1013 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N81W 23N89W 20N93W
THEN CONTINUING ACROSS S MEXICO AND NWD ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE. UNLIKE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WHEN SEVERE
DAMAGING STORMS WERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN N AND CENTRAL
FLA...DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY DETECTING AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN S CENTRAL FL. WHILE
DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT IN ABUNDANCE...THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION
TRANSPORTED AND ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE WINDS
NEAR 120 KT. THE THICKEST CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS W OF 92W N OF 21N...CLOSER TO THE BASE OF A SHARP
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS BAJA INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC.
THE FRONT IS MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN A WARM HUMID TROPICAL
AIRMASS AND A COOLER MORE SEASONABLE ONE ADVECTED IN BY BRISK
N-NELY WINDS. TO REFERENCE HOW WARM S OF THE BOUNDARY...RECORD
BREAKING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80'S F OCCURRED ON FRI IN PARTS OF
SE FL. THE SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MODERATE TO
STRONG SIDE IN THE SRN GULF THRU THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
E TIGHTENING THE PRES GRAD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CAUSING THIS STABILITY IS
HIGHLY CONFLUENT BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC THAT
EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL CARIB...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A LARGE FLAT RIDGE CENTERED ABOVE THE
EQUATORIAL ATLC. THE AIR IS SO STABLE ALOFT THAT THE WV COLOR
ENHANCEMENTS ARE IN THE DRIEST RANGE ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND THE
SRN CARIB. BELOW THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION...THICKEST AND MORE CONCENTRATED E OF 73W.
RATHER STRONG ELY TRADES...MAINLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIB. THESE WINDS DEVELOP A
SLY COMPONENT IN THE NW CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT IN
THE S GULF. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...DENOTED BY A LINE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT...LIES ACROSS GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN
ALONG 89W FROM 15N-21N. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG THRU THE WEEKEND AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM ELY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS IN THE SE GULF/NW CARIB.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE GULF
SECTION IS IN THE W ATLC ANALYZED ALONG 32N73W 28N76W TO S FLA.
WHILE IR IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...
ADVECTED FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET...DOES EXIST. THIS MOISTURE IS
MAINLY CONTAINED N OF 24N W OF 43W AND IS DEEPER IN NATURE
BETWEEN 45W-52W WHERE INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED BY A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND.
PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS S OF THE AREA
OUTLINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
IS THE SAME RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIB WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY
ALONG 20N70W TO BERMUDA. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN
THE CENTRAL/ERN ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32N34W 23N37W
15N45W. AN ASSOCIATED 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE NWRN
AZORES ISLANDS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW TO
31N34W THEN CONTINUING SSW AS A SFC TROUGH TO 22N38W. THE
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SFC LIFT IS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE E ATLC IS UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDINESS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EXISTS BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
EQUATORIAL ATLC AND THE SHARP DEEP TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC.
THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO RATHER DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TROPICAL BELT FROM 10N-20N SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NRN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI






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