[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N23W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W CONTINUING ALONG 2S40W INTO NE BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM N W OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SE...AT 03Z IT WAS ANALYZED FROM
SOUTH FL TO SRN MEXICO ALONG 26N82W 22N91W 19N96W THEN
STATIONARY NWD ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WHEN SEVERE DAMAGING STORMS WERE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN N AND CENTRAL FLA...DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY
DETECTING AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT IN S CENTRAL FL. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT IN
ABUNDANCE...THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION TRANSPORTED AND ENHANCED BY A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 120 KT. THE THICKEST
CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS W OF 92W...CLOSER
TO THE BASE OF A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS BAJA
INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC. THE FRONT IS MARKING THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN A WARM HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS AND A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE ONE ADVECTED IN BY BRISK NLY WINDS. THE SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN
GULF...THRU THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E TIGHTENING THE
PRES GRAD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CAUSING THIS STABILITY IS
HIGHLY CONFLUENT BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC
WHICH EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL CARIB AND A LARGE FLAT
RIDGE CENTERED ABOVE THE EQUATORIAL ATLC. THE AIR IS SO STABLE
ALOFT THAT THE WV COLOR ENHANCEMENTS ARE IN THE DRIEST RANGE
ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SRN CARIB. BELOW THE STRONG
MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION...THICKEST AND MOST ORGANIZED E OF 72W. RATHER STRONG ELY
TRADES...MAINLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
ERN AND CENTRAL CARIB. THESE WINDS DEVELOP A SLY COMPONENT IN
THE NW CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE S GULF. GFS
SHOWS THE TRADES REMAINING MODERATE TO STRONG THRU THE WEEKEND
AND BECOMING MORE UNIFORM ELY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS IN
THE SE GULF/NW CARIB.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE GULF
SECTION IS IN THE W ATLC ANALYZED FROM A 1002 MB LOW OFF THE
VIRGINA COAST ALONG 32N75W TO S FLA. WHILE IR IMAGERY DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
JET DOES EXIST. THIS MOISTURE IS MAINLY CONTAINED N OF 24N W OF
44W AND IS DEEPER IN NATURE BETWEEN 48W-55W WHERE INSTABILITY IS
ENHANCED BY A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR
EXISTS S OF THE AREA OUTLINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS THE SAME RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIB
WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 21N73W TO BERMUDA. A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL/ERN ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 32N36W 23N39W 15N50W. AN ASSOCIATED 1017 MB LOW
IS LOCATED NEAR THE WRN AZORES ISLANDS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW TO 24N43W. THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND SFC LIFT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BUT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING
AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A CONFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE FLAT RIDGE
ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL ATLC AND THE SHARP DEEP TROUGH IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TROPICAL BELT FROM 10N-20N SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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