[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 6N24W 4N32W 3N43W 1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 60W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING CALIFORNIA AND REACHING
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE EASILY WILL SWEEP ACROSS
MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST. A BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS MEXICO NOW..EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF THE U.S.A. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N91W TO 21N93W TO 19N98W
IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 23N82W
IN WESTERN CUBA BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 23N87W TO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA WEST OF 70W. THE RIDGE IS ALONG 12N79W BEYOND 23N82W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W IS EXPERIENCING MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THANKS TO THE FLOW AROUND THE
26N53W-NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EAST OF 70W IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE...
IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE
CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N52W-TO-NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N64W.
IT HAS SHOT AHEAD WELL TO THE EAST OF WHERE IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO.
IT IS FOLLOWED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N53W TO A 21N55W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N596W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
9N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 14N TO 28N.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
15N TO 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 64W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT ARE RACING
TOWARD THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
NORTHEAST FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W IN THE SURFACE
TRADEWIND FLOW MAY BE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W
ALSO ARE IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 27N33W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 34N
BETWEEN 25W AND 44W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTER OF THE IVORY COAST TO 10N16W TO 24N22W.

$$
MT


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