[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
6N11W 6N25W 4N30W 4N43W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 30W...
AND OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN 44W AND 53W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD...ENCOMPASSING CALIFORNIA AND REACHING
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE EASILY WILL SWEEP ACROSS
MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST. A BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS MEXICO NOW..EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF THE U.S.A. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N91W TO 18N98W IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 23N82W IN WESTERN
CUBA BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 23N87W
TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA WEST OF 70W. THE RIDGE IS ALONG 12N79W BEYOND 23N82W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W IS EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE...IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MAY INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N52W-TO-
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
WESTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO 26N73W
TO 23N73W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WHOSE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS 32N77W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W
TO 28N63W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS COLD
FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N52W TO A 22N53W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N56W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
9N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 14N TO 28N. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
15N TO 23N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. THE ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W IN THE
SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW MAY BE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 40W AND 46W ALSO ARE IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 26N32W
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE
AREA FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 23W AND 43W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE IVORY COAST TO 10N16W TO 23N22W.

$$
MT


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