[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N13W 8N25W 5N40W 2N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 75W...
A WEAKENING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH
25N92W INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN GULF. AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N90W...MOVING NNE ABOUT 20 KNOTS. RIDGING
ALOFT COVERS THE ATLANTIC W OF 75W...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

BETWEEN 25W AND 75W...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC S OF ABOUT 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.
THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N55W INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR
7N65W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 25N52W TO 15N53W.
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. A SEPARATE
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W
TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD. A WELL-DEFINED
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...12 TO 14 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
28N34W...MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
THE CIRCULATION ARE IN THE S QUADRANT WITH WESTERLIES ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.

E OF 25W...
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE FAR E PART OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM ABOUT 10N TO 25N. AT THE SURFACE...A 1033
MB HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE VICINITY OF 36N22W WITH EAST WINDS
LOCATED OVER THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS S OF 32N TO ABOUT 12N.

$$
CAB

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