[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 44W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
11W-21W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN
25W-30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N95W TO 24N98W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS OVER SE LOUISIANA AND THE N
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N91W 28N94W MOVING SLOWLY E.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 90W-92W.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...E OF THE SQUALL LINE...PRODUCING 10-15 KT SELY
FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SHARP TROUGH IS
OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 94W MOVING E.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 88W.  A RIDGE IS OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W.  EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
ADVECT OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND BE W OF 90W WITHIN 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION WITHIN 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 19N67W TO 20N60W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 18N
AND E OF 72W TO INCLUDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-25 KT
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM E PANAMA TO E HONDURAS
BETWEEN 77W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 15N AND W OF 70W.  UPPER LEVEL WLY ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N64W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N39W 26N50W 20N60W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 37N24W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 28N33W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
AND W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N
E OF 60W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N35W.

$$
FORMOSA






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net