[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 44W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
14W-21W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN
33W-44W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 30N91W TO 21N99W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE
IS OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 32N88W
29N90W MOVING SLOWLY E.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 87W-90W.  HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS
NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...E OF THE SQUALL
LINE...PRODUCING 10-15 KT SELY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO WITH
AXIS ALONG 93W MOVING E.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 87W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF
88W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF
87W.  EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ADVECT OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO AND BE W OF 88W WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO W CUBA WITH CONVECTION
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 19N60W TO 19N68W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 18N
AND E OF 72W TO INCLUDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-25 KT
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM E PANAMA TO E HONDURAS
BETWEEN 77W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 15N AND W OF 70W.  UPPER LEVEL WLY ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N61W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N36W 29N40W 27N47W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 19N60W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS JUST
E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 37N23W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
26N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N AND W OF 75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E
NEAR 27N66W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 17N-35N
BETWEEN 60W-75W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N
E OF 60W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N35W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN
28W-45W.

$$
FORMOSA







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