[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N25W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 44W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-14W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NE BRAZILIAN
COAST AND FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS E TEXAS AND THE
WEST GULF. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO
REACH THE CENTRAL GULF TOMORROW MORNING...AND W CUBA/THE NW
CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY. STRONG SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 21Z...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N95W TO NE MEXICO CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A
SQUALL LINE PRECEDING THE FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE SE US.
MODERATE TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE NW GULF. THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE N OF THE GULF REGION BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A
POSITION FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO THU AND DISSIPATE FRI.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DRAPES SW INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO. THE ATTENDANT
STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDED FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N73W. THE
SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME OF WHICH ARE AFFECTING
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. A SMALL AREA OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
IS MOVING QUICKLY FROM E TO W ACROSS JAMAICA. THE EPAC ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA INTO W COLOMBIA ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
IS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS WHERE THERE ARE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS GENERATING
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 31N42W TO 26N49W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH. A
BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE HAS BUILT
BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING THE W ATLC TO OVER FLORIDA ANCHORED BY
A 1025 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N63W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
13N32W. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED NEAR 22N36W. WITH THE DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER MOST
THE ATLC...THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT/TROUGH. E OF THIS FRONT...A 1027 MB HIGH
LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE E-CENTRAL
ATLC GENERATING MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

$$
GR





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