[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251717
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N6W 2N13W 1N20W 2N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW
AFRICA S OF 7N W OF 7W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM INLAND OVER AFRICA TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E
OF 10W TO JUST ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES AND MEXICO MOVING INTO THE W GULF N OF 20N W OF 93W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BUT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. A SQUALL LINE PRECEDING THE
FRONT IS IN THE NW GULF WITH HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 94W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE SE US. MODERATE/STRONG S TO SE WINDS
CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE GULF WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO
THE N BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF. THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE N OF THE GULF REGION BUT
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N
GULF COAST STATES AS IT CROSSES THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND A SECOND IS OVER THE
SE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC DRAPING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS N OF 17N FROM E CUBA
TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO TO 14N79W. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE TROUGH MAINLY OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
11N TO ACROSS PANAMA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 81W. DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 15N W OF 82W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N43W TO 28N47W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE FRONT AND S OF 21N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF THE
FRONT/TROUGH TO 70W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE HAS BUILT BEHIND
THE FRONT COVERING THE W ATLC TO OVER FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N63W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IS IN
THE E TROPICAL ATLC SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N33W.
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
22N36W. WITH THE DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER MOST THE
ATLC...THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL
ATLC FRONT/TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net