[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N30W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 16W-21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN
23W-35W...AND FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 34N83W.  A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO.  10-20 KT SWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE GULF E OF 96W.  ONSHORE FLOW
OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE W OF 96W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY WINDS AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO ADVECT OVER THE WRN GULF WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALSO
EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS W OF 96W
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
HAVE CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 21N60W 18N66W.  A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
SW TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 71W-74W.
10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE AXIS IS OVER NRN SOUTH
AMERICA ALONG 10N FROM TRINIDAD TO COSTA RICA.  MOSTLY WLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 13N WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO
PUERTO RICO ALONG 32N40W 26N50W 21N60W 18N66W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N21W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
24N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
N OF 10N BETWEEN 25W-50W.  ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
N OF 10N AND E OF 25W.  A WEAK TROPICAL JETSTREAM DEPICTED BY
THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO W AFRICA ALONG 7N40W
13N20W 20N5W.

$$
FORMOSA



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