[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222302
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N17W 2N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE AXIS W OF 22W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-7N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD...FLAT UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF TODAY EXTENDING THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR IS LIMITING
CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BANKING OVER
THE FAR W GULF DUE TO SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COVERING THE GULF TO ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE S MEXICO AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS INT HE W BAY
OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF
THROUGH TUE. WED WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NW GULF PRECEDING A FRONT EXPECTED ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS TO THE N COAST
OF HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DRAPING A STATIONARY FRONT
TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 16N70W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LEVELS HOWEVER ARE DOMINATED
BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND NE VENEZUELA NW TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PUMPING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST FROM 69W-80W. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWERS OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO AFTERNOON
HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 19N E OF
47W TO FLORIDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N37W SW ALONG 25N49W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W
WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30W-47W ANCHORED OVER
NE VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
INLAND OVER MOROCCO OVER W AFRICA INTO THE FAR E TROPICAL ATLC
TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N E OF
30W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM
AFRICA COAST TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH SITUATED BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. DRY AIR
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLC LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA
NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT.

$$
WALLACE





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