[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N46W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W...
GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W...AND FROM
2S TO 1N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 5N14W 4N21W 3N30W 1S31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEYOND
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF COAST OF LOUISIANA. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS FOR EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NO COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N/14N FROM THE EASTERN SECTION
TO CENTRAL AMERICA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 19N60W TO 17N67W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N67W TO
15N70W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
10N77W. STRONG SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 40 NM RADIUS OF
11.5N73W. SHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM
6N TO 9N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/
TROUGH. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W. THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N40W TO 25N50W TO 19N60W...ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS NEAR 32N73W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N50W 28N60W 26N71W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N60W 25N50W 29N44W
BEYOND 32N39W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO
25N36W BEYOND 32N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W
TO 26N35W 17N50W FINALLY TOWARD BARBADOS AND TRINIDAD.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM CENTRAL MOROCCO
TO SOUTHERN WESTERN SAHARA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE TROPICAL JET STREAM AND SURROUNDING WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N51W NEAR SURINAME/FRENCH GUIANA
TO 10N43W 11N35W 12N25W BEYOND 14N77W OVER SENEGAL.

$$
MT



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