[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 1N23W 4N43W 2N51W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
13W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF 5N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 21W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 44W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TO ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALSO ALONG TEXAS
COAST AT 14/0900 UTC. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE N GULF COAST STATES
THIS MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS BORDER ALONG 28N95W TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT
14/0900 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM E OF TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC. THIS
IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF
FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION BUT ONLY PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS. DRY
AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE E GULF LEAVING THE AREA UNDER
CLEAR SKIES WHILE THE RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PRODUCING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W GIVING
THE W CARIBBEAN W UPPER FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF 70W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC N OF 22N FROM 69W TO OVER FLORIDA AND A
1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N75W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM 47W-70W HOWEVER THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS N OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION N OF
23N FROM 20W-35W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N26W TO 27N33W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT NW TO 31N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF THE REGION. A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N55W
WITH AN EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 27N53W TO
23N59W. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA ACROSS
THE TROPICS ALONG 8N/9N TO 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N17W SW TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 24N31W
TO 17N45W. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC GIVING
THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

$$
WALLACE


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