[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
10N13W 5N20W 2N30W 2N40W 2N45W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
3N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W...AND SOUTH OF 8N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...
THANKS TO THE 17N81W CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF WATERS...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST TO 27N95W...
TO THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER.
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
COAST TO 24N97W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INVADING
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
MOVING FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EXIT THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N81W...
ABOUT...IN BETWEEN WESTERN JAMAICA AND THE EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS
PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE AREA ALSO. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ONLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER...NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 75W. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES 20N59W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 45W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST.
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY THIS TROUGH IS NEAR 31N53W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N53W
TO 27N60W TO 25N70W AND 24N74W. THE TROUGH IS MARKED BY A THIN
LINE OF LOW CLOUDS. NO SERIOUS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...GOES FROM A 32N21W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
26N23W TO 20N26W TO THE WATERS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 17N26W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 32N23W 27N30W
25N40W COLD FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTUES FROM 25N40W TO
27N47W AND 31N52W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE THROUGH 32N22W 29N25W
26N30W 27N35W. A SEPARATE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
28N52W. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW CENTER
NEAR 23N55W 21N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net