[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140440
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N19W 1N25W 1N37W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR NEAR 44W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 18W
TO JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
17W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL INLAND. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS E TEXAS DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT ENTERING THE GULF BY LATE MORNING. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE
W GULF FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION BUT CURRENTLY NOT PRODUCING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE E
GULF LEAVING THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE THE RETURN LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W GIVING THE W
CARIBBEAN W UPPER FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W
OF 75W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N FROM 50W-75W HOWEVER THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT ENTER THE REGION. DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION N OF
24N FROM 25W-40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N29W TO 27N38W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT NW TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 30N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER E/W
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA ACROSS THE TROPICS ALONG 6N/7N TO
55W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N17W
SW ALONG 22N34W THEN W ALONG 22N53W THEN NW TO A 1020 MB HIGH
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W COVERING THE ATLC S OF 30N.
THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

$$
WALLACE




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