[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 3N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 41W CONTINUING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 18W-24W AND 28W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 240 NM
N OF THE AXIS W OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FLARING UP IN THE N CENTRAL/EAST GULF. THE
SYNOPSIS CONSISTS OF A WARM FRONT PULLING N ANALYZED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N87W CONTINUING TO A 1007 MB LOW OFF THE TX
COAST NEAR 28N96W AT 09Z. THIS IS 3 MB LOWER THAN THE 06Z
ANALYSIS AND PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SW
TEXAS...CLEARLY MARKED BY THICK LOW CLOUDS. INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/SHEAR TO THE E OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S TEXAS TO 21N104W...IS
FUELING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W-91W AND
OVER SW LOUISIANA. THIS WARM FRONT DENOTES A SIGNIFICANT TEMP
GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE 40'S IN THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE
MID-UPPER 70'S S OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING TRANSPORTED BY EXTENSIVE STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW SE OF
A LINE FROM THE ITCZ REGION IN THE EPAC ACROSS S MEXICO TO
CENTRAL N FLORIDA ALONG 20N95W 27N87W 29N81W. ACTIVE WEATHER IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...ESP IN THE E GULF...BEFORE THE
LOW MOVES AWAY INTO THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO THE NW CORNER LATE FRI/EARLY SAT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REGION ANCHORED BY
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB NEAR 14N70W.
DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE
CLUSTER THAT HAS BEEN IN THE SW CARIB HAS JUST ABOUT FIZZLED. A
DEBRIS CIRRUS DECK COVERS THE AREA SE OF A LINE FROM 16N82W TO
12N69W. ELSEWHERE MODEST SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LAST QSCAT PASS
DEPICTED STRONGER 20 KT WINDS IN THE TYPICAL REGION JUST N OF
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS UNUSUALLY THIN
THIS MORNING WITH ONLY BROKEN PATCHES OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR THE
TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MOST OF THE WX FEATURES
REMAIN N OF THE REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE SCALE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS THE BIG PICTURE ACROSS THE
ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THE BROAD RIDGE IS CENTERED
IN THE S CARIB AND EXTENDS WELL N RUNNING ALONG 21N60W 32N40W.
TO THE W OF THIS AXIS...THE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY ZONAL WITH A
STREAK OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ROUGHLY N OF 26N. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK AND DEEPENED BY THE LEADING
EDGE OF A WARM FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM CENTRAL FL TO 32N75W AND A
REMNANT FRONT...SFC TROUGH...ALONG 30N54W 21N67W. WEAK HIGH PRES
EXISTS BETWEEN THE BOUNDARIES. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST IN AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE...N OF 26N BETWEEN 40W-48W...IN RESPONSE TO
THE LARGE TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE E ATLC. THIS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS IS VERY PRONOUNCED EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE IBERIAN PENINSULA ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N22W AND
EXTENDING WELL SSW ALONG 25N27W 16N34W 3N40W. THERE ARE A COUPLE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS BEING TRACKED IN AND JUST N OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE ARE BASICALLY LOW CLOUD SWIRLS NOT PRODUCING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. IN FACT...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE
DEEP CLOUDINESS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OUTLINED. ELSEWHERE AT THE
SFC...A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N40W CONTROLS THE PATTERN
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES
ACROSS THE TROPICS.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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