[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 5N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S AT 44W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 2N46W 1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 15W AND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TEXAS BIG BEND-TO-MEXICO NEAR 20N102W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH NOW IS
ALONG 94W/95W FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. THIS
TROUGH ACCOMPANIES A SURFACE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N96W JUST INLAND OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. A WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...BECOMING
STATIONARY AT TIMES DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE WARM
FRONT GOES FROM THE TEXAS LOW CENTER TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 93W AND 94W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY
FROM THERE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W...TO 27N83W
JUST OFF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE FRONT
CHANGES TO WARM AT 27N83W INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED  MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
INLAND BEYOND 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 60W AND 95W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPIRALLING ANTICYCLONICALLY
ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING ON TOP
OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS NORTH OF 13N EAST OF 70W. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN BY THE SHAPE OF THE 1012 MB ISOBAR
SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 70W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWS UP IN THE
LOW CLOUD FIELD ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOUTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 84W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE
IN LINES OF SURFACE WIND CONFLUENT FLOW...SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN
60W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF
80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 30N
WEST OF 40W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 30N
WEST OF 40W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 30N IS PART OF THE
OVERALL DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO
THE EAST OF THE  U.S.A. EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 32N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 32N72W TO 31N75W 30N78W TO 29N80W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 29N80W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N70W 29N75W
27N80W. A BIG SHIELD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS FLORIDA...TOWARD 30N80W. 250 MB LEVEL
WINDS AT 100 KT OR FASTER ARE BLOWING FROM THE WEST...FROM 25N
TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N66W INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N57W TO 28N47W BEYOND 33N45W. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 22N25W TO 14N28W 6N43W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN SUPPORTED BY THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING AFRICA. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
31N34W TO 26N43W TO 26N70W.

$$
MT


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