[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 44W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 22W...WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 27W-35W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE W
OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT N IN THE NRN GULF. AS OF
09Z...THE FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N91W
CONTINUING TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 27N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO SW
TEXAS...CLEARLY MARKED BY THICK LOW CLOUDS. THE WARM FRONT
DENOTES A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE 50'S ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO THE MID 70'S S OF THE FRONT. A 00Z QSCAT PASS ALSO
SHOWS A CLEAR WIND SPEED GRADIENT WITH LIGHT...10 KT...SE/ESE
WINDS S AND QUITE STRONGER 15-20 KT ENE/E WINDS TO THE N OF THE
FRONT. OVERRUNNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
MEXICO...FROM 29N101W TO 20N110W...IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 89W-94W. ELSEWHERE ALONG AND TO THE N
OF THE FRONT...A BROKEN DECK OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IS THE GENERAL THEME. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE MORE TRANQUIL AND TROPICAL-LIKE S OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS BEING TRANSPORTED BY EXTENSIVE MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW SE OF A LINE FROM THE ITCZ REGION IN
THE EPAC ACROSS S MEXICO TO CENTRAL N FLORIDA ALONG 21N96W
27N87W 29N81W. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THE LOW
STRENGTHENING...WHICH LOOKS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE NEARBY UPPER
SUPPORT...AND PUSHING OFF INTO THE W ATLC TOMORROW NIGHT. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME ORGANIZED
RAINFALL IN THE E GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REGION ANCHORED BY
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB NEAR 14N70W. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA
AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N...ALTHOUGH THIS PATCH HAS BEEN
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
COVERS THE AREA SE OF A LINE FROM 16N82W TO 12N69W. ELSEWHERE
MODEST SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. AT THE
SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. A 22Z QSCAT PASS SHOWS
STRONGER 20 KT WINDS IN THE TYPICAL REGION JUST N OF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS UNUSUALLY THIN THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY BROKEN PATCHES OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR THE TAIL
END OF A WEAKENING FRONT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE SCALE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS THE BIG PICTURE ACROSS THE
ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THE BROAD RIDGE IS CENTERED
IN THE S CARIB AND EXTENDS WELL N RUNNING ALONG 21N60W 32N40W.
TO THE W OF THIS AXIS...THE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY ZONAL WITH A
STREAK OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ROUGHLY N OF 26N. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK AND DEEPENED BY THE LEADING
EDGE OF A WARM FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM CENTRAL FL TO 31N75W AND A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W AND
THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE N SHORE OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. WEAK
HIGH PRES EXISTS BETWEEN THE FRONTS. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST IN
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE...N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W-51W...IN RESPONSE
TO THE LARGE TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE E ATLC. THIS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS VERY PRONOUNCED EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N22W AND
EXTENDING WELL SSW ALONG 25N27W 16N35W 3N44W. THERE ARE A COUPLE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS BEING TRACKED JUST N OF THE AREA...BUT THESE
ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. IN FACT...THERE
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE DEEP CLOUDINESS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA
OUTLINED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
29N42W CONTROLS THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC
PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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