[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 4N20W 3N37W 3N46W 2N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-22W AND
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE US COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SKIES OVER FLORIDA AND
THE SW GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE NW OVER MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES BRINGING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO THE W
GULF BUT AS YET HAS PRODUCED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. SURFACE RIDGE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO
BUILD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS.
BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE OVER
THE FAR E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 17N89W WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO
18N79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W ACROSS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WITH SW
TO W UPPER WINDS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS
THE W ATLC W OF 62W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA
FROM A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 34N67W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR NEAR 22N79W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR
20N75W ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS ALONG 25N68W TO NEAR BERMUDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF THE
TROUGH WITHIN 200 NM OF E OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH S OF 25N. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
8N60W JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
22N56W TO BEYOND 32N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N46W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 10N FROM 20W-42W WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N23W SW TO 27N27W. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE BULK OF THE ATLC E OF E
OF 50W...THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER
AFRICA N INLAND OVER AFRICA TO E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERING
THE AREA E OF 20W AND CONTINUING TO LIMIT THE ITCZ AXIS
CONVECTION.

$$
WALLACE



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