[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N11W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S AT 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 27W...
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 36W
AND 39W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN 6W AND 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS SPINNING
AROUND NEAR 32N/33N ALONG 108W IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
HAVE BEEN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS SOUTH OF 35N. SOME OF THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF 25N
WEST OF 93W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 24N80W TO 24N84W OVER FLORIDA. THIS IS A SECONDARY
SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A SECOND FRONT BEHIND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO BAHAMAS-TO CUBA-TO NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT IN
FLORIDA ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30F RANGE. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG 23N93W BEYOND 29N95W ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
WESTWARD TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS NORTHWEST OF 16N84W 18N81W 19N77W. THE
COMPARATIVELY GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS SOUTHEAST OF
20N63W 16N72W 12N82W. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS BORDER...ACROSS
JAMAICA...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO 20N79W...
TO 19N80W TO SOUTHERN BELIZE. A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH EXISTS IN
THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...
FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 15N72W TO
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN HISPANIOLA WEST OF 70W...AND FROM 14N TO 17N
BETWEEN 85W AND 89W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO HONDURAS.
ITCZ CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE SOUTH OF 10N WEST
OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. COAST THROUGH 32N77W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 26N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N90W
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N64W TO 26N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W
TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 47W AND
60W...FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W
TO 29N78W TO 28N80W AND 28N84W. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS SECOND FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
10N BEYOND 32N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
31N30W TO 26N30W TO 18N35W TO 9N36W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N21W 27N24W 24N32W TO
20N39W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N45W TO 21N53W...INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N66W.

$$
MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net